Post-Covid economy: ‘There will be winners and losers’

Frank Holmes, Partner at Gambit Corporate Finance, recently spoke to Cardiff Business Club members, providing insight into how the UK economy is being affected by the coronavirus pandemic, and what may lie ahead in the coming weeks and months for businesses; sharing the key findings of Gambit's newly published report: Covid-19 – Business Support: The Return – Seeing Around Corners.

Accordingly, 72% of businesses have furloughed employees, and almost one in three are planning redundancies post-furlough due to both sector contraction and the additional realisation that many businesses are overstaffed. 50% of businesses foresee further falls in revenue, two-thirds have been recipients of the Government’s Bounce Back Loan Scheme and 60% believe economic recovery is unlikely to be realised until the end of 2021/early 2022.

Yet against this backdrop, Frank argues optimistically that it is critical to reconstruct for the future, and not dwell on the past. Indeed, while recognising the severity of the current situation, opportunities will also feature in the post-pandemic economy. Growth may be slower, but it is possible we will see a burst of innovation in a reconnected world. As well as pivoting their offering, organisations may also see opportunity in greater collaboration between industry, academia and government.

Asked if he could foresee parallels between the current situation and that which took place after the last recession, Frank commented there is likely to be a rise in the number of new business start-ups. For many, this may be the best alternative, but as always, there will be winners and losers.

The full address to the Cardiff Business Club can be accessed here.

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